I got into trouble on PBF i bought because of the story not paying attention to technical set up. That is ALWAYS a mistake. I didnt even know the story well enough, not fundementals. The story i liked was the Icahn will be one of Trumps advisors. STUPID mistake.
Friday, January 6, 2017
Its too hard to deal with illiquid positions and maintain a day job. I like targeting small stocks but the liquidity needs to be there.
Unfortunately 100% of my success the last 6 months has been in illiquid shares.
New rule: Once I deal with what i currently own, I will not own more than 3 illiquid names at one time.
Unfortunately 100% of my success the last 6 months has been in illiquid shares.
New rule: Once I deal with what i currently own, I will not own more than 3 illiquid names at one time.
Thursday, January 5, 2017
Monday, January 2, 2017
I read a good article: http://www.safalniveshak.com/email-exchange-with-sanjay-bakshi-on-valuations/
It highlights that if you buy a company with a moat with good long term business prospects than there is virtually no reason to sell, even if the company gets to relatively absurd valuations. Unfortunately with the rapid pace of change I think it's pretty hard to tell which companies have a moat around them. Probably the best long term bet is FDX. If I had bought it 80 points ago maybe I'd hold it forever, but today it's at a multiple that I'm not willing to pay for... and i dont own it. If and when we get a recession this is one to buy. I also really like long FDX and short UPS. If autonomous trucks do arrive within the next ten years, FedEx will clobber UPS. UPS is severely hampered by its unions.
Also was looking at my notes in Zebra for Lion country:
A few things stand out:
1. when a large segment of the market gets overpriced and corrects everybody gets slammed
2. Look for young growing companies with solid balance sheets, experienced, entrepeneurial leaders, and a niche
3. GARP - growth at a reasonable price
I think WLDN and BBI.V squarely fit in point 2.
It highlights that if you buy a company with a moat with good long term business prospects than there is virtually no reason to sell, even if the company gets to relatively absurd valuations. Unfortunately with the rapid pace of change I think it's pretty hard to tell which companies have a moat around them. Probably the best long term bet is FDX. If I had bought it 80 points ago maybe I'd hold it forever, but today it's at a multiple that I'm not willing to pay for... and i dont own it. If and when we get a recession this is one to buy. I also really like long FDX and short UPS. If autonomous trucks do arrive within the next ten years, FedEx will clobber UPS. UPS is severely hampered by its unions.
Also was looking at my notes in Zebra for Lion country:
A few things stand out:
1. when a large segment of the market gets overpriced and corrects everybody gets slammed
2. Look for young growing companies with solid balance sheets, experienced, entrepeneurial leaders, and a niche
3. GARP - growth at a reasonable price
I think WLDN and BBI.V squarely fit in point 2.
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